Google Earth and the UK Met Office have collaborated to produce a simulation of a world with an average global temperature rise of 4C above pre-industrial levels. Most scenarios date that at around 2100 given business as usual.
Google Climate Map 1
Google Climate Map 2
Map source. Play with it yourselves.
Some documents for you:
1. Scripps Institute of Oceanography. Small PDF.
2. global_warming_man_or_myth. 6MB PDF.
3. Hotties vs Frosties? Just a page link to someone who at least has a sense of humour!
…Is it increasing, decreasing or staying the same? Have a good look – take all the time you like. Don’t scroll down yet. Can you draw any conclusion?
You can apply all the statistical tests you like, and draw trend lines, or trend curves or do whatever you like, and I will have no faith in any statement other than, “You can’t tell”. But that is not what I say. I say it is definitely increasing. I’m absolutely sure of it. Why? Because I know where the data came from, and I have a model in my head of what I expect that data to do, and when I look at that data, it only confirms the model.
The data is the daily maximum temperature for Perth for September 2009. Here in Perth, we get warmer during September (that is the extremely simple model I have in my head), and with this in mind, when I look at the data, that is exactly what I see – a steadily increasing trend with some unusually warm days at the start of the month, and one unusually cold one at the end.
This is why frosties and hotties can look at the same data and see different things. The frosties look at the data without any underlying model, and see no trend. The hotties look at the data in the light of their models, and see something different. The point of difference is not that they see different things, it is the presence or absence of an underlying model of what they see.
So lets sort out our common ground, and work out where our differences really come from. At least then we can have a debate which is better than, “You are a moron”, “No, you are a moron”.
From ABC News: Figures show hottest June on record.
Last month was the hottest June ever recorded on Earth, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said overnight.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature data also found the January-June and April-June periods were the warmest on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Centre, which based its findings on measurements that go back as far as 1880.
In June, the combined average for global land and ocean temperatures was 16.2 degrees Celsius, 0.68C more than the 20th century average of 15.5C.
Temperatures warmer than average spread throughout the globe in recent months, most prominently in Peru, in the central and eastern United States and in eastern and western Asia, according to NOAA.
In contrast, cooler-than-average conditions affected Scandinavia, southern China and the US north-west…